Prediction Markets in 2026: What ICE, Morgan Stanley and ARK Are Buying

Frequently Asked Questions

01.Why are institutions investing in prediction markets in 2026?

The thesis is data rather than betting. Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the New York Stock Exchange, committed up to 2 billion dollars to Polymarket and became a global distributor of its event-driven data, positioning prediction market prices as a sentiment feed sold alongside conventional market data. Kalshi separately raised 1 billion dollars at a 22 billion dollar valuation with Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest participating.

02.How large are prediction markets by volume?

Monthly transaction volume across prediction market platforms grew from about 1.2 billion dollars in early 2025 to over 20 billion dollars in January 2026. Polymarket set a single-day volume record of 425 million dollars on 28 February 2026, exceeding its previous high set on US Election Day in 2024.

03.What is the main risk in prediction market exposure?

Regulatory classification is the dominant risk. Whether a given event contract is treated as a derivative, a security or a gaming product varies by jurisdiction and remains unsettled in several major markets. That determines which venues an institution can access, what reporting applies, and whether a position is enforceable, which is why allocators typically start with equity exposure to the venue operators rather than direct positions.